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If you don't like baseball, watch baseball, or know what baseball is, know this — the 2016 World Series is different.?

When the Cleveland Indians host the Chicago Cubs in a best-of-seven series

．．． 較多If you don't like baseball, watch baseball, or know what baseball is, know this — the 2016 World Series is different.?

When the Cleveland Indians host the Chicago Cubs in a best-of-seven series beginning Tuesday night, we won't just witness another run-of-the-mill Fall Classic. This year's matchup is steeped in history, characterized by decades of suffering, and features two teams who know a whole lot about losing.?

By the end of this World Series, one city will hoist the championship trophy for the first time in a very, very, long time.?

SEE ALSO: The dark side of a feel-good World Series

The Cubs haven't won a World Series since 1908, the longest championship drought in North American professional sports. They haven't even been to a World Series since 1945.?

Chicago's franchise is supposedly cursed, and the years of bad luck and losing seasons prove it.?

But a revamped front office and minor-league farm system have turned the Cubs from lovable losers to a national powerhouse. They showed up at Spring Training with the best odds of winning the World Series and led baseball with 103 wins during the regular season. ?

It's easy to root for this year's Cubs, until you remember who's in the other corner.

Image: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

The Indians haven't won a World Series since 1948, the second longest championship drought in baseball. Cleveland stumbled through the 1970s and '80s, failing to make the postseason every season in a 24-year span. Its last World Series appearances — both losses, of course — came in 1995 and 1997.?

The history of this World Series is huge, and each team's drought will be hyped constantly. But there's more to this matchup.

So, if you're just tuning in, here are our five biggest storylines to watch during the 112th World Series.?

1. Battle of the bullpens

The Cubs and Indians have one very specific thing in common —?in July, they both picked up two of the best relief pitchers in baseball, courtesy of the New York Yankees. The Indians, who traded for Andrew Miller, and the Cubs, who traded for Aroldis Chapman, understood the value of a shut-down bullpen in the postseason, and made sure to stock up on elite relievers.?

Andrew Miller has been unbeatable.

Image: Elsa/Getty Images

The results have been undeniable.?

Miller struck out 21 batters in 11.2 scoreless postseason innings for the Indians, earning MVP honors in the American League Championship Series. He's at the helm of a monster bullpen with a 1.67 ERA in the playoffs.?

Cleveland's strategy this postseason is simple —?get an early lead and let the bullpen save it.?

Though the Cubs' bullpen might not have the flashiest postseason numbers this year — a 3.53 ERA and a couple blown saves — it still features Chapman, who fires 100-mph fastballs right by hitters on a regular basis.?



Image: mlb

Keep an eye on the bullpen. This series could hinge on the guys emerging from it.?

2. The fountain of youth

You can bet Fox announcers will constantly tout the young talent of both World Series teams, particularly Chicago.?

The average age of the Cubs infield — featuring All-Star Addison Russell, NLCS co-MVP Javier Baez, 2015 Rookie of the Year Kris Bryant and MVP candidate Anthony Rizzo — is 24 years old.?

Russell and Baez are only 22 and 23, respectively. They epitomize the Cubs' philosophy of developing young superstars and complimenting them with big-budget free agent signings.?

Clearly, that model has worked.?

Javier Baez was the Cubs' co-MVP of the NLCS.

Image: mlb

The Indians have shallower pockets, and couldn't afford to take the powerhouse approach. Instead, Cleveland relies on contributions from more frugal pick-ups like Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli.?

They still boast a solid young core that features All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor (22), José Ramirez (24) and rookie Tyler Naquin (25). Rookie starting pitcher Ryan Merritt (24) made only one major league start before helping the Indians clinch a World Series berth last week.?

For a World Series soaked in historical context, this Fall Classic belongs to the kids.?

3. It starts with starting pitching

With all eyes on the bullpen, starting pitching could be the Cubs' not-so -secret weapon.?

Chicago boasts a deep starting rotation that led the majors with a 2.96 ERA during the regular season. Between Jon Lester — who's posted a 0.86 ERA in three postseason games — Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs are set.?

The Indians had a brilliant starting rotation of their own at one point this season, but lost two of their talented arms to injury. There are murmurs of one of them returning, but more on that later.

Aside from Game 1 starter and former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, the Indians have relied on good — but not elite — starting pitchers who turn in gutsy performances.?

Corey Kluber won 18 games in 2016.

Image: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Josh Tomlin is largely untested. Trevor Bauer bled himself off the mound last week. Ryan Merritt has two major league starts to his name.

Still, the Indians starting rotation has an impressive 1.86 ERA this postseason.

But don't let the numbers fool you. Chicago has an edge here.?

4. Comeback kids

This World Series will feature elite relief pitching, the best of the best. Games will surely come down to the late innings.

But here's something to chew on.?

This postseason, the Cubs have scored 17 runs in the seventh inning or later, the best of any team. They've thrived on comeback wins, and never seem to go down quietly.

Image: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

How many have the Indians scored in the seventh or later?

Zero.?

Cleveland appears incapable of putting runs on the board with their backs against the wall. Their game plan, as mentioned, is to get an early lead and turn things over to the bullpen.

That might not work against a team like the Cubs.?

Chicago's bullpen is beatable, but it's still formidable in the late innings, a time when the Indians' bats seem to be incredibly weak.?

5. Reviving the dead

Chicago won more than 100 games without Kyle Schwarber, one of the Cub's elite young superstars. Schwarber hit five postseason home runs last year, but tore his ACL just two games into this season.?



Now, there's talk he might be back.?

Since coming off the disabled list on Saturday, Schwarber has been getting back into playing shape in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). Depending on his performance in an AFL game Monday night, the Cubs could activate him for a designated hitter role in the World Series on Tuesday.?

There's sure to be rust, but if Schwarber performs anything like the player he was in 2015, he could be a difference-maker.?

For Cleveland, it's looking like starting pitcher Danny Salazar will return as well.

The All-Star right-hander, who struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings during the regular season, has been sidelined with a forearm strain since Sept. 9. It's unclear whether or not Salazar will start, considering the long layover, but he would bring stability to a starting rotation that desperately needs it.?

Both teams aren't taking any chances. They want their best lineups on the field.

Image: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

This World Series figures to be epic, not only because of the historical context, but because of how each team's strengths counter the other's. Chicago's bats are scary, but Cleveland's pitching is hot. The Indians' bullpen is ferocious, but the Cubs know how to score late.?

Regardless, one of these long-suffering franchises will see relief soon. A historic championship drought will be quenched with a champagne shower.?

The loser? Well, they're already used to losing, and can wait just a little longer.?

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2016年10月25日週二 台北標準時間下午6時57分





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鉅亨網新聞中心

美國聯準會 (Fed)21 日結束議息會議，決定把聯邦基金利率維持在 0.25 至 0.5% 水平，主席葉倫會後暗示升息條件日趨成熟，大部分 Fed 官員亦預測今年會至少升息一次，意味著 12 月升息機會相當高。不過，情緒激動的「債王」葛洛斯炮轟 Fed 的決議令投資者混亂，甚至表示已經放棄對升息做出任何預測，儘管如此，他最後還是聲稱 Fed 存在 11 月升息的可能。

香港《文匯報》綜合外電消息，葉倫 (Janet Yellen) 在記者會表示，雖然支持升息的理據有所增強，但希望有更多證據證明推薦經濟已上軌道，因此決定再觀察一段時間。葉倫指，美國今年就業人數每月大約增加 18 萬人，但失業率一直維持在 4.9% 左右，反映愈來愈多人加入求職行列，認為推遲升息有助吸收過剩勞動力。她又稱 7 月份議息會議以來，雖然家庭支出一直穩步上升，但企業固定投資仍然疲軟。

美國上半年經濟增長令人失望，前兩季換算成年率分別只有 0.8% 及 1.1%。葉倫稱美國經濟仍有進一步增長的潛力，但表明不希望經濟過熱，認為如果按照當前趨勢發展，逐步進行數次升息較合適。Fed 認為，美國經濟目前面臨的短期風險「大致平衡」，這是自去年 12 月升息以來，Fed 首次使用這一說法。分析指，這反映局方認為風險因素正在下降，準備好再次升息，只是在等待更合適的時機。

根據 Fed 公佈的預測數據，17 位官員中有 10 人認為今年將升息一次，另有 3 人認為不會升息，剩餘 4 人認為升息不止一次。高盛首席經濟師哈丘斯指出，Fed 今年剩下的兩次例行會議分別在 11 月初及 12 月中旬，由於 11 月的一次臨近美國總統大選投票日，相信 Fed 在 12 月升息機會最大。

未來利率走勢方面，Fed 官員預計明年會升息兩次，到 1% 至 1.25%，2018 及 2019 年分別升息 3 次，在 2019 年底上調到 2.5% 至 2.75%。相比 Fed 今年 6 月預測 2016 年升息兩次、2017 及 2018 年分別升息 3 次，升息步伐明顯有所放緩。

Fed 把今年美國經濟增長預測從 2.0% 下調至 1.8%，明年的增長則維持在 2.0% 不變。

Fed 宣佈維持利率不變，符合多數人預期，但也有少數人表示不滿。有「債王」之稱的著名投資人比爾．葛洛斯 (Bill Gross) 昨 (22) 日表示，自己聽到這一消息後情緒激動，對此感到「無話可說」。他炮轟 Fed 的決議令投資者混亂，甚至表示已經放棄對升息做出任何預測，但之後又聲稱 Fed 存在 11 月升息的可能。

葛洛斯此前曾表示，Fed 在 9 月會議上升息的機會是 50 比 50。在獲知這次不升息的消息後，他的反應是「無言」，原因是 Fed 官員此前的聲明，和此次不升息的決議自相矛盾，令他和投資者都感到「非常困惑」。

「債王」情緒激動地指出，Fed 主席葉倫與副主席費雪 (Stanley Fischer) 此前均發表過「鷹派」言論，費雪甚至暗示今年可能升息兩次，「而在此之後，他們竟然選擇再次推遲對於利率正常化而言是一次必要的升息，拒絕向儲蓄者提供在我看來哪怕是一點點稀粥，以滿足他們教育、退休和醫療保險方面的需求」，這令他十分不滿。

葛洛斯認為，「保持低利率並不是金融機構需要的 (政策)」。他引述數據指出，Fed 令孳息曲線平坦，對比日本央行的決定顯得混亂，又猛烈抨擊 Fed 已處「前所未有的境地」，一方面聲稱按模式做事，但事實上是轉向依賴經濟數據做出決定，變得更加主觀。

「債王」還聲稱，Fed 已處於困境，「他們現在是一團糟」，但在炮轟之後，他仍不忘對升息時間表做出預測，預料 Fed 存在 11 月升息的可能，儘管 11 月的議息會議後不會有新聞發佈會。

市場對各國央行寬鬆政策產生質疑，認為泵水功力已減弱。《華爾街日報》指出，多個國家的央行為了提振經濟增長及通膨目標，近年紛紛採用量化寬鬆 (QE) 等貨幣政策工具，但成效並不顯著。分析認為，當前世界經濟問題的癥結在於勞動力收縮及生產力增長疲弱，政策工具僅屬次要。

日本央行 21 日宣佈鴻圖大計，不但希望通膨達到此前訂下的 2% 目標，更瞄準短期利率目標及長債孳息率。但這引起外界質疑，日央行等同承認此前採取的政策都未能收效。日央行公佈新計劃後，日元匯價不跌反升，某程度上反映市場對央行新舉措的效力存疑。截至今年 6 月 30 日的 12 個月內，日本經濟平均增速只有 0.2%，通膨率略低於零，公眾及市場對通膨預期正持續下滑。有分析認為，日本經濟問題源於人口老化導致勞動力及消費者基數收縮，削弱資本擴張意願，生產力增長陷入停滯及財政緊縮政策亦令經濟前景蒙陰霾。

美國及歐洲經濟經歷同樣困境，美國失業率為 4.9%，接近 Fed 所指的自然水平，但經濟增長乏力、通膨及通膨預期長期受壓；歐洲央行為提振歐元區通膨，不惜推行負利率，但歐元區上月通膨仍只有 0.2%。

大行評後市表現及投資部署

高盛：市場預期 Fed 緩步加息下，料資金會流向亞太區，有利區內股市，決定上調對 MSCI 亞太區 (除日本外) 的未來 12 個月預測目標，由原來 430 上升至 470 點，潛在升幅 3%。

摩根士丹利：儘管 5 年期債券邁向去年 2 月以來表現最差的一個月，但仍建議投資者繼續買入 5 年期美國主權債。

美銀美林：Fed 將中期利率預測調低，料明年加息機會有兩次，較原先三次少，明年利率走勢點陣圖，由之前預期 1.625%，降至 1.125%。

花旗：市場對美國重啟加息已有共識，若升息保持緩步，對整體市場衝擊其實不大。國際熱錢會因加息回流美國，新興市場貨幣受壓，但也有助有關市場的出口表現。

資料來源：香港文匯報

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